A tradition that has developed here at Gator Country is for me to spend time in the preseason crunching the numbers and watching film in order to generate a statistical prediction of Florida’s incoming transfers.
If you want to take a look back at how I did with last season’s predictions you can do so here, but I will also post the preseason predictions and the actual stats to see how I did:
Alijah Martin
Preseason Projections:
30.4 Minutes
12.3 Points
2.7 Assists
4.5 Rebounds
1.6 Steals
0.3 Blocks
35.3% Three-Point
Actual Stats:
30.4 Minutes
14.4 Points
2.2 Assists
4.5 Rebounds
1.5 Steals
0.2 Blocks
35.0% Three-Point
Rueben Chinyelu
Preseason Projections:
19.8 Minutes
6.6 Points
0.9 Assists
6.8 Rebounds
0.4 Steals
1.4 Blocks
0.0% Three-Point
Actual Stats:
19.0 Minutes
6.0 Points
0.7 Assists
6.6 Rebounds
0.5 Steals
0.9 Blocks
0.0% Three-Point
Sam Alexis
Preseason Projections:
18.9 Minutes
6.2 Points
0.9 Assists
5.9 Rebounds
0.4 Steals
1.0 Blocks
27% Three-Point
Actual Stats:
11.9 Minutes
4.7 Points
0.4 Assists
3.5 Rebounds
0.3 Steals
0.6 Blocks
20% Three-Point
As you can see, the predictions were decent–and if you want to see more, you can go back to the previously linked articles to look back at past years.
Now, onto this year’s projections.
Boogie Fland
31.5 Minutes
15.2 Points
5.1 Assists
3.8 Rebounds
1.5 Steals
0.1 Blocks
36.6% Three-Point
With Fland already having proven production at the SEC level it’s easy to see him taking a step up in year two, not just because of the added experience, but the fact that he will hopefully have a fully healthy year after fighting injuries throughout his time at Arkansas. Todd Golden has referenced Fland being more of the point guard of the two when he’s on the floor alongside Xaivian Lee, so a robust assist count should be expected.
Xaivian Lee
31.2 Minutes
14.1 Points
4.8 Assists
4.5 Rebounds
0.9 Steals
0.1 Blocks
34.3% Three-Point
Coming from the Ivy League in a year where the conference wasn’t as strong as it normally is, the projections for Lee become a lot more difficult than most players. A talented scorer and flashy passer, there are certainly going to be games where he puts up massive box score numbers, but he will also occasionally struggle with turnovers and streaky shooting due to the high difficulty of shots he will take. Ultimately, Lee is so creative and talented offensively that he should be expected to be a capable scorer in the SEC.
AJ Brown
11.2 Minutes
4.1 Points
0.8 Assists
1.4 Rebounds
0.5 Steals
0.1 Blocks
35.5% Three-Point
There are going to be minutes available at the wing and many people will expect Brown to factor into that conversation, and while he might get some early opportunities due to his experience–ultimately my projection for him just isn’t that high, with some of the younger, more athletic wings predicted to usurp him in the depth chart. Brown is a tremendous catch and shoot player who can provide space for the talented transfer point guards and returning centers, but the issue for him is going to be on the defensive end. Known as a poor defender in the MAC, he is set for a massive step up to the SEC which could provide some major challenges.
What do you think of the projections? Let us know in the comments or on the message boards.